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Brian A. Colle  

Brian A. Colle

Ph.D., 1997, University of Washington


Synoptic meteorology, mesoscale numerical modeling and forecasting, coastal meteorology

Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction Group

Research Interests

The COastal Meteorological And Prediction (COMAP) group focuses on improving the understanding and forecasting of meteorological phenomena in the coastal margins of North America. Many near-shore features, such as severe convective storms, storm surge, land/sea breeze circulations, orographic flows and precipitation, and marine clouds/fog in a marine environment are challenging to forecast.

These phenomena are investigated using conventional data, field study observations, as well as atmospheric (Weather Research and Forecasting model, Bryan Cloud Model, and MM5) and ocean (ADCIRC and SWAN) models combined with the latest data assimilation approaches. We also also interested in how extreme weather will change in a future climate using WRF nested within global climate models. For more information, please visit the COMAP web page.

Publications (since 2007)


Picca, J.C., D.M. Schultz, B.A. Colle, S. Ganetis, D.R. Novak, and M. Sienkiewicz, 2014: The value of dual-polarization radar in diagnosing the complex microphysical evolution of an intense snowband. In press to the Bull. Meteor. Soc.

Li, H., and B.A. Colle, 2014: Multidecadal changes in the frequency and ambient conditions of warm season convective storms over the northeastern U.S. J. Climate, 27, 7285-7300.

Colle, B.A., D. Stark, and S.E. Yuter, 2014: Surface microphysical observations within East coast winter storms on Long Island. Mon. Wea. Rev, 142, 3126-3146.

Souders, M.B., B.A. Colle, E. K.-M., Chang, 2014: A description and evaluation of an automated approach for feature-based tracking of Rossby wave packets. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3505-3527.

Souders, M.B., B.A. Colle, E. K.-M., Chang, 2014: The climatology and characteristics of Rossby wave packets using a feature-based tracking technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3528-3548.

Archer, C. L., B.A. Colle, L. Delle Monache, M. J. Dvorak, J. Lundquist, B. H. Bailey, P. Beaucage, M. J. Churchfield, A. C. Fitch, B. Kosovic, S. Lee, P. J. Moriarty, H. Simao, R. J. A. M. Stevens, D. Veron, J. Zackhttp, 2014: Meteorology for coastal/offshore wind energy in the United States: Recommendations and research needs for the next 10 years. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 515-519.

Wuebbles, D, G. Meehl, K. Hayhoe, T. Karl, K. Kunkel, B. Santer, M. Wehner, B. Colle, E. Fischer, R. Fu, A. Goodman, E. Janssen, V. Kharin, H. Lee, W. Li, L. Long, S. Olsen, Z. Pan, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, and L. Sun, 2014: CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95, 571-583.

Maloney, E. D., S. J. Camargo, E. Chang, B. Colle, R. Fu, K. L. Geil, Q. Hu, X. Jiang, N. Johnson, K. B. Karnauskas, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, S. Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, L. N. Long, A. Mariotti, J. E. Meyerson, K. C. Mo, J. D. Neelin, Z. Pan, R. Seager, Y. Serra, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, J. Stroeve, J. Thibeault, S.-P. Xie, C. Wang, B. Wyman, and M. Zhao, 2014: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of 21st Century projections. J. Climate, 27, 2230-2270.

Hodrefe, C, P. Doraiswamy, B.A. Colle, K. Demerjian, W. Hao, M. Erickson, M. Souders, and J-Y Ku, 2014: Meteorology, Emissions, and Grid Resolution: Effects on Discrete and Probabilistic Model Performance. In: D. Steyn, P. Builtjes, R. Timmermans (eds.): Air Pollution and Modeling and Its Application XXII, NARA Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, 493-497. Springer Netherlands.


Sheffield, J., A. Barrett, B. Colle, R. Fu, K. L. Geil, Q. Hu, J. Kinter, S. Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, L. N. Long, E. Maloney, A. Mariotti, J. E.

Meyerson, K. C. Mo, J. D. Neelin, Z. Pan, A. Ruiz-Barradas, Y. L. Serra, A. Seth, J. M. Thibeault, J. C. Stroeve, 2013: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century continental and regional climatology. J. Climate, 26, 9247-9290.

He, J., M. Zhang, W. Lin, B. Colle, and A. Vogelmann, 2013: The WRF nested within the CESM: Simulations of a mid-latitude cyclone over the Southern Great Plains. J Adv. in Modeling Earth Systems. 5, 611-622.

Lombardo, K, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Processes controlling the structure and longevity of two quasi-linear convective systems crossing the southern New England coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3710–3734.

Zheng, M., K. Chang, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Ensemble sensitivity tools for assessing extratropical cyclone intensity and track predictability. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 1133–1156.

Colle, B.A., Z. Zhang, K. Lombardo, P. Liu, E. Chang, and M. Zhang, 2013: Historical evaluation and future prediction in eastern North America and western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season. J. Climate, 26, 6882–6903.

Stark, D., S.E. Yuter, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Observed microphysical evolution for two East coast winter storms and the associated snow bands. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2037–2057.

Renfro, A., K. Cochran, and B. Colle, 2013: Atmospheric fluxes of 7Be and 210Pb on monthly time-scales and during rainfall events at Stony Brook, New York (USA). J. Environ. Radioact.., 116, 114-123.

Lin, Y., B.A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2013: Impact of moisture flux and freezing level on simulated orographic precipitation errors over the Pacific Northwest. J. of Hydrometeor. , 14, 140-152.

Pollina, J., B.A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2013: Climatology and meteorological evolution of major wildfire events over the Northeast U.S. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 175–193.

Colle, B. A. , K. A. Lombardo, J. Tongue, W. Goodman, and N. Vaz, 2012: Tornadoes in the New York Metropolitan Region: Climatology and multiscale analysis of two events. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1326-1348.


Lombardo, K, and B.A. Colle, 2012: Ambient conditions associated with the maintenance and decay of quasi-linear convective systems crossing the northeastern U.S. coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3805-3819.

Erickson, M.E., B.A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2012: Impact of bias correction type and conditional training on Bayesian model averaging over the northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1449-1469.

Molthan, A., and B.A. Colle, 2012: Comparison of single and double moment microphysics schemes in the simulation of a synoptic-scale snowfall event. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 140, 2982-3002.

Novak, D. and B.A. Colle, 2012: Diagnosing snowband predictability using a multi-model ensemble system.. Sin Wea. Forecasting, 27, 565-585.

Colle, B.A., R.B. Smith, and D. Wesley, 2012: Theory, Observations, and Predictions of Orographic Precipitation. In: Chow, F.K., De Wekker, S.F.J., and B.J. Snyder (eds.): Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting: Recent Progress and Current Challenges, 291-344. Berlin: Springer.


DiLiberto, T., B.A. Colle, N. Georgas, A. Blumberg, and A. Taylor, 2011: Verification of a multiple model storm surge ensemble for the New York Metropolitan Region., Wea. Forecasting. 26, 922-939.

Lombardo K., and B.A. Colle, 2011: Convective storm structures and ambient conditions associated with severe weather over the Northeast U.S. Wea. Forecasting. , 26, 940-956.

Colle, B. A., and M. E. Charles, 2011: Spatial distribution and evolution of extratropical cyclone errors over North America and adjacent oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System model. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 129-149.

Yuter, S. E., J. Payne, D. Stark, B.A. Colle, and J. Crouch, 2011: Observational sensitivity study of the temporal and spatial patterns of orographic precipitation for winter storms near Portland, Oregon. J. Hydrometeor, 12, 329-351.

Lin, Y., L. Donner, and B.A. Colle, 2011: Parameterization of riming degree and its impact on ice fall speed using ARM data, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1013–1035.

Lin, Y., and B. A. Colle, 2011: A new bulk microphysical scheme that includes varying degree of riming and particle habits., Mon. Wea. Rev. , 139, 1036-1047.

Murray, J., and B. Colle, 2011: A climatology of convective storms over the Northeast United States. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 139, 992-1012.

Bowman, M. J., B.A. Colle, and H. Bowman, 2011: “Storm surge modeling for the New York City Region, Chapter 5 in Coastal Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities., pg. 76-95. Earthscan Publishing.


Lombardo, K., and B.A. Colle, 2010: A climatology of convective structures over the Northeast U.S. and the associated ambient conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev, 138, 4456–4474.

Colle, B. A., and D. Novak, 2010: New York Bight jet: Climatology and dynamical evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 2385-2404

Novak, D., and B.A. Colle, 2010: Climatology and composite analysis of mesoscale precipitation band formation in the comma head of mid-latitude cyclones., Mon. Wea. Rev. 138, 2354-2374.

Willett, K., F. Pimenta, D. Veron, and B. Colle, 2010: Electric power from offshore wind via synoptic-scale interconnection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0909075107.

Colle, B. A., K. Rojowsky, and F. Buonaiuto, 2010: New York City storm surges: Climatology and analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution. J. Appl. Meteor. and Climatology, 49, 85-100.


Charles, M., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 1: Comparison of the GFS and NAM models., Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1173-1190.

Charles, M., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 2: Evaluation of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system, Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1191-1214

Novak, D., B.A. Colle, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2009: The role of moist processes in the formation and evolution of mesoscale snowbands within the comma-head of Northeast U.S. cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2662-2686.

Lin, Y., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Observed and Simulated Cloud Microphysics over the Oregon Cascades during the 4-5 December IMPROVE-2 IOP, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 137, 1372-1392.

Olson, J. B., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Three-dimensional Idealized Simulations of Barrier Jets Along the Southeastern Coast of Alaska. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 137, 391-413.


Colle B. A., Lin Y., Medina S., Smull B., 2008: Orographic modification of convection and flow kinematics by the Oregon coastal range and Cascades during IMPROVE-2. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3894-3916.

Colle, B.A., Buonaiuto, F., Bowman, M.J., Wilson, R.E., Flood, R., Hunter, R., Mintz, A., Hill, D., 2008. New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 89, 829–841.

Novak, D. and B.A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2008: High resolution observations and model simulations of the life cycle of an intense mesoscale snowband., Mon. Wea. Rev. , 136, 1433–1456.

Colle, B. A., 2008: Two-dimensional idealized simulations of the impact of multiple windward ridges on orographic precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 509–523.

Bowman, M.J., D. Hill, F. Buonaiuto, B. Colle, R. Flood, R. Wilson, R. Hunter and J. Wang, 2008. Threats and Responses Associated with Rapid Climate Change in Metropolitan New York. In “Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change”, M. MacCracken, F. Moore and J.C. Topping (eds). Earthscan, London, pp. 327.


Olson, J., B. Colle, N. Bond, and N. Winstead, 2007: A comparison of two barrier jet events along the southeast Alaskan coast during the SARJET experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3642–3663.

Olson, J. B., and B.A. Colle, 2007: A Modified approach to initialize an idealized extra-tropical cyclone within a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 135, 1614-1624.

Jones, M., B.A. Colle, and J. Tongue, 2007: Evaluation of a short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast U.S., Wea. Forecasting, 22, 36-55.

Colle, B. A., and S. E., Yuter, 2007: The Impact of Coastal Boundaries and Small Hills on the Precipitation Distribution Across Southern Connecticut and Long Island, NY. Mon. Wea. Rev, 135, 933-954.


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